Indian bonds sell off on oil shock ahead of RBI policy minutes

Indian government bonds sold off after an oil price spike, with the move coming ahead of the release of the Reserve Bank of India's policy minutes. Higher crude prices feed into the transmission channel through inflation expectations, since India imports most of its oil and an energy-driven rise in import costs threatens to widen the current account deficit and push headline CPI higher. Markets respond by repricing the likelihood that the RBI keeps policy tighter for longer or delays rate cuts, which lifts yields at the front and belly of the curve and pressures long-duration sovereign paper. Rate-sensitive segments of the bond market, including longer-dated government securities, are the most exposed, while the rupee faces added pressure through the trade balance and foreign portfolio outflows. The RBI policy minutes are the next key catalyst, as traders will parse the committee's language on inflation risks from energy and its assessment of the growth-inflation trade-off for signals on the policy path.

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