A SENIOR IRANIAN SECURITY OFFICIAL TELLS FARS NEWS THAT TEHRAN EXPECTS ANOTHER U.S.-ISRAELI ATTACK AND CONSIDERS WASHINGTON’S DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS INSINCERE - FARS NEWS

A senior Iranian security official, speaking to Fars News, stated that Tehran anticipates a further U.S.-Israeli attack and regards Washington's diplomatic overtures as insincere. The statement signals that Iran is framing ongoing negotiation efforts as a cover for military action, which raises the probability of escalation in a region that sits astride key oil shipping lanes. The primary transmission channel for traders is geopolitical risk premia: a perceived increase in the likelihood of military conflict tends to lift crude oil and natural gas prices through supply-disruption expectations, while pushing capital toward safe-haven assets such as gold, U.S. Treasuries, and the Japanese yen. Energy producers and tanker and shipping equities are typically the most directly exposed, alongside regional currencies and sovereign debt in the Gulf and Israel, whose risk spreads widen during periods of heightened conflict expectations. Traders should watch the next Brent crude inventory report from the Energy Information Administration and any statements from U.S. or Israeli officials addressing the Iranian claims, as either could confirm or dampen the escalation premium.

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