BoJ Oct Meeting To Postpone Consecutive Rate Hikes, Effectively Reaching 2% Inflation Target - Nikkei

The Nikkei reported that the Bank of Japan's October meeting is expected to postpone consecutive rate hikes, a move framed as effectively consistent with the central bank having reached its 2% inflation target. The transmission mechanism runs through the rate differential and the yen: a slower tightening path narrows the expected gap between Japanese and US policy rates less than a hawkish surprise would, which tends to keep the yen weak and supports exporters with overseas earnings in dollar and euro terms. Japanese equities, and the Nikkei in particular, are most exposed because a weaker yen lifts translated profits for large export-heavy constituents, while domestically oriented banks and insurers can be pressured by a flatter-for-longer rate outlook that limits net interest margin expansion. Traders will watch the next Tokyo CPI release and the BoJ's updated outlook report for evidence on whether core inflation is sustaining above target without further policy tightening. Currency moves in USD/JPY around these releases will be the clearest read on whether the postponement is being priced as dovish or as a signal of confidence in durable inflation.

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