Canadian Data Cast Doubt on China-US Bond ‘Conspiracy,’ NBF Says

National Bank of Financial (NBF) analysts reported that Canadian data undermine the thesis of a coordinated China-US bond conspiracy, a narrative that had gained traction in some market commentary. The headline points to cross-border flow evidence, suggesting that observed moves in US Treasury and Chinese sovereign debt may reflect conventional drivers rather than deliberate coordination. If that reading holds, the transmission runs through rate differentials and portfolio rebalancing rather than geopolitical positioning, which would reduce the risk premium traders had attached to China's bond holdings. China's onshore government bonds and yuan-denominated assets are the most directly exposed, since any reassessment of Beijing's intent affects foreign demand and perceived sanctions risk. The next catalyst to watch is China's monthly foreign holdings data from the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, which will show whether overseas investors are actually adding or reducing exposure.

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