Indian bonds steady after RBI minutes signal more rate hikes

Indian government bond yields held roughly flat after the Reserve Bank of India's latest policy minutes indicated that further rate increases remain on the table if inflation pressures persist. The signal points to a hawkish policy stance, with the central bank's reaction function tied to inflation persistence rather than to near-term growth softness, which lifts the expected path of short-term policy rates and pushes up the front end of the sovereign curve. The main transmission channel is the rate differential against major developed-market benchmarks: a higher expected domestic policy rate widens the carry advantage for foreign investors holding rupee-denominated debt, which can attract portfolio inflows and support the currency, though this is offset when global yields are rising or risk appetite deteriorates. Rate-sensitive exposures such as Indian government securities, interest-rate swaps, and banks with large treasury books are most directly affected, while the rupee and equity sectors reliant on domestic credit growth face second-order effects. Traders should watch India's next consumer price index release for the direction of core and food inflation, since a print that co

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