American Express raises 2026 profit forecast as affluent customers keep spending

American Express raised its 2026 profit forecast, citing continued spending by affluent cardholders, a signal that high-income consumer demand has held up despite prior concerns about a slowdown. The transmission channel runs through consumer resilience and credit quality: a strong top-of-the-income-distribution spending base supports card transaction volumes and fee income while keeping delinquency pressure contained, which feeds into the broader read on discretionary demand and bank earnings. Premium card issuers, consumer discretionary retailers and travel-linked names are most directly exposed, since affluent spending skews toward travel, dining and luxury goods, while the read-across to banks with heavy consumer lending books depends on whether credit losses stay benign. Traders should watch the upcoming U.S. retail sales report and the next consumer credit delinquency data from the Federal Reserve, as any divergence between strong high-income spending and weakening lower-income balances would challenge the resilience narrative.

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