Governments are borrowing at the fastest pace since the pandemic. Net borrowing by advanced economies will reach 5.2% of GDP this year, the highest since 2021, per the IMF. The U.S. and China are on track for deficits of 8% of GDP or more in 2026.

The IMF reports that net borrowing by advanced economies is set to reach 5.2% of GDP this year, the highest level since 2021, with governments borrowing at the fastest pace since the pandemic. The headline is truncated before naming the full U.S. and China deficit figures, so those specific projections cannot be confirmed from the text provided. The primary transmission channel is fiscal supply: heavier sovereign issuance tends to push up term premia and long-end yields, tightening financial conditions even absent any change in central bank policy. Long-duration government bonds in the U.S. and China are most directly exposed, while China's exposure is also tied to its growth-sensitive equities and the yuan, given the question of how its deficit is financed. Traders should watch the IMF's full Fiscal Monitor details and upcoming U.S. Treasury auction results and quarterly refunding announcements for signs of demand strain at the long end.

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