OIL NEARS IRAN WAR PEAK AS U.S. FUEL COSTS SURGE Brent crude hit $116/barrel, approaching its Iran war peak amid fears of renewed fighting after the midterms. 🔸 U.S. gasoline: $4.29/gallon, up 40% year-over-year 🔸 Additional fuel spending: $142B this year, according to Brown University researchers 🔸 Michigan and Ohio: Largest weekly gasoline price increases

Brent crude reached $116 per barrel, approaching the peak it hit during the Iran war, while U.S. gasoline prices rose to $4.29 per gallon, up 40% year-over-year. The move reflects a supply-risk premium being repriced into crude as traders weigh the prospect of renewed hostilities involving Iran after the U.S. midterm elections. The transmission runs through the geopolitical risk premium embedded in front-month Brent futures, which feeds directly into refined product margins and then into retail fuel costs, with inflation expectations rising as energy weighs on consumer price indices. Brent-linked contracts, refiners with heavy exposure to crude input costs, and U.S. transport and airline equities are most sensitive, while energy producers may benefit from higher realized prices. Traders should watch the next weekly EIA petroleum inventory report and any official statements from Iran or U.S. defense channels on the post-midterm timeline for escalation.

Brent crude is the international oil benchmark, priced in the North Sea. Unlike WTI it reflects global supply/demand — Middle East geopolitics, OPEC+ cuts, Russian export sanctions, and Asian refinery demand all drive Brent intraday.

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