U.S. oil holds above $100, Brent at five-month high as Iran says it’s prepared for warfare

U.S. crude remains above $100 a barrel while Brent has climbed to a five-month high after Iran signaled it is prepared for warfare, according to the headline. The transmission mechanism here is a geopolitical risk premium feeding directly into crude through supply-disruption expectations, since any military escalation near the Strait of Hormuz or other Gulf shipping lanes threatens a material share of seaborne oil flows. Energy equities and crude-linked producers are the most directly exposed, while oil importers such as India, Japan, and South Korea face worsening terms of trade and wider current-account pressure. Inflation expectations also come into play, as sustained crude strength tends to lift breakeven rates and complicates central bank easing paths. Traders should watch the next weekly EIA inventory report and any statements from Gulf shipping insurers or tanker-routing advisories for signs of whether the risk premium is translating into physical supply constraints.

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