THREE MAJOR ISRAELI POLLS PROJECT JUST 50 SEATS FOR NETANYAHU’S BLOC, RAISING THE PROSPECT OF A DEADLOCK THAT COULD KEEP HIM IN POWER AS CARETAKER PRIME MINISTER - AXIOS

Three major Israeli opinion polls project that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc would win only about 50 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, short of the 61-seat majority needed to form a government, according to Axios. The reported outcome points toward a prolonged political deadlock in which Netanyahu could remain in office as caretaker prime minister while coalition negotiations stall. The transmission mechanism for markets runs mainly through political risk premia and fiscal policy expectations: prolonged uncertainty can delay budget approval, complicate defense spending decisions, and weigh on investor appetite for Israeli sovereign debt and the shekel. Israeli government bonds, the shekel, and domestic equities, particularly banks and infrastructure names sensitive to fiscal direction, are the most directly exposed. Traders should watch the final election results and the Knesset's coalition-formation timeline, as well as the Bank of Israel's next rate decision, for signs of how institutional uncertainty is being priced.

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