Ukraine War Expected to Persist Through 2027, With Little Current Momentum Toward a Ceasefire, Fitch Says

Fitch Ratings has assessed that the war in Ukraine is likely to continue through 2027, with no meaningful momentum toward a ceasefire at present. The transmission to markets runs primarily through sovereign credit and risk premia: a prolonged conflict sustains elevated defence spending across European budgets, weighs on Ukraine's fiscal capacity and external financing needs, and keeps geopolitical risk premia embedded in regional sovereign spreads. Ukrainian sovereign debt and instruments tied to its recovery trajectory are the most directly exposed, while European sovereigns with higher defence and energy-related fiscal burdens and energy-sensitive equities face secondary repricing. A key near-term reference point for traders is the timing of further Western financing commitments and any changes to Ukraine's IMF program reviews, which will indicate whether the funding gap is being closed or widening.

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