Wall Street Journal on US officials: Trump leans toward resuming major operations against Iran despite no final decision yet

The Wall Street Journal, citing US officials, reported that President Trump is leaning toward resuming major military operations against Iran, though no final decision has been made. The most direct transmission channel is geopolitical risk premia, where expectations of renewed conflict in the Middle East tend to lift oil and defense-sector prices, feed into inflation expectations, and raise equity volatility as investors reassess growth and energy-cost assumptions. The S&P 500 is exposed through its energy and defense constituents and, more broadly, through risk appetite, since escalation historically triggers rotation toward Treasuries, gold, and the dollar and away from cyclicals. Iran-linked assets and regional sovereign debt are the most sensitive to headline risk, while the broader index's reaction will depend on whether crude prices sustain a move higher. Traders should watch the next official White House or Pentagon statement on a final decision and Brent crude's reaction in the following sessions as the clearest signal of whether the market is pricing a sustained supply risk.

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