ATTACKS SURGED IN THE THIRD QUARTER, WITH ABOUT 387 SHIPS HIT BETWEEN JULY AND SEPTEMBER, MORE THAN FOUR A DAY, AFTER UKRAINE LAUNCHED A CAMPAIGN AGAINST RUSSIAN-LINKED VESSELS AND RUSSIA STEPPED UP STRIKES ON SHIPS CALLING AT UKRAINIAN PORTS, WITH AMBREY ESTIMATING RUSSIA RESPONSIBLE FOR AROUND 90% OF ATTACKS ON SHIPPING OVER THE PAST 45 DAYS USING DRONES, EXPLOSIVE-LADEN SEA DRONES AND MISSILES…

Attacks on shipping surged in the third quarter, with roughly 387 vessels reportedly hit between July and September, or more than four per day, after Ukraine launched a campaign against Russian-linked ships and Russia escalated strikes on vessels calling at Ukrainian ports. The disruption transmits primarily through maritime supply chains and insurance costs, as war-risk premiums, rerouting, and delayed port calls raise freight rates and lift the cost of moving grain, fertilizer, energy, and other bulk commodities through the Black Sea. Commodity-linked assets are most exposed, particularly wheat, corn, and sunflower oil futures, where any sustained tightening of Ukrainian and Russian export flows can reprice global food inflation expectations, while Russian and Ukrainian sovereign and corporate credit remains highly sensitive to headline risk. Traders should watch weekly export inspection data and Black Sea freight and war-risk insurance quotations, as these will show whether the attack tempo is translating into measurable volume losses and higher landed costs.

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