Iranian Foreign Ministry: Tehran has not left the negotiating table, and messages are being conveyed through intermediaries.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that Tehran has not withdrawn from negotiations and that communications are being carried out through intermediaries, indicating that diplomatic channels remain open even if direct talks are not currently taking place. For markets, the transmission mechanism runs primarily through geopolitical risk premia and the probability assigned to de-escalation versus escalation, which feed into oil prices, shipping insurance costs, and safe-haven demand. Iran-linked exposure is most direct in Iranian sovereign and quasi-sovereign instruments and in regional equities, while crude benchmarks such as Brent are sensitive to any change in perceived supply risk through the Strait of Hormuz. Traders should watch the next official statements from the Foreign Ministry and any reported meeting venues or mediator announcements, as confirmation of a formal resumption of talks would likely compress risk premia, whereas a breakdown of intermediary channels would reverse that pressure.

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