SERBIA’S ALEKSANDAR VUCIC SAID “BASED ON A STRATIFIED SAMPLE, IT IS CLEAR THAT WE HAVE LOST THIS ELECTION. THE STUDENT BLOCKADE LIST WON,” A RESULT THAT ENDS MORE THAN A DECADE OF DOMINANCE BY VUCIC’S SERBIAN PROGRESSIVE PARTY

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said, based on a stratified sample, that his Serbian Progressive Party has lost the election to the student-backed "blockade" list, ending more than a decade of its dominance. The transmission channel for markets runs mainly through political risk premia and institutional continuity: a change in governing coalition raises questions about the pace of EU accession reforms, the stance on Russia and energy supply, and the trajectory of fiscal and state-owned enterprise policy. Serbian sovereign debt and the dinar are the most directly exposed, with spread and currency moves likely to reflect the degree of policy uncertainty during coalition formation. Regional peers such as Bosnia, North Macedonia and Montenegro may also see sentiment spillovers, given their shared exposure to EU enlargement timelines and Balkan capital flows. Traders should watch the official results from the Republic Electoral Commission and any announced coalition talks, along with the next National Bank of Serbia policy decision for signals on monetary and FX stability.

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