How did each state vote in the second round? See where Lula and Flavio won

The headline reports the state-by-state results of Brazil's presidential second round, showing where Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro each won. The market transmission runs primarily through fiscal and policy expectations: a clear winner tends to reprice expectations on public spending, tax reform, and the trajectory of the fiscal deficit, which feeds directly into sovereign risk premia and the real's valuation. A narrow or geographically split result typically raises uncertainty about congressional support and therefore about policy continuity, which can widen local yield curves and increase hedging demand for the real. Brazilian equities, particularly state-controlled and infrastructure names sensitive to regulatory direction, and the BRL against the dollar are the most exposed instruments, since they reprice fastest on political-risk shifts. Traders should watch the first official government signals on fiscal anchor and the Central Bank's next Copom communication, as guidance on the Selic path will determine how much of the political repricing carries into rate expectations.

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