OCTOBER HOLD PRICED IN. WALL STREET EYES DECEMBER HIKE. Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to hold rates this week before raising them 25 basis points in December. Kalshi traders price a 93% chance of an October hold, versus just 6% for a hike. The debate has shifted from October to December.

Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to hold its policy rate this week and then raise it by 25 basis points in December, while prediction-market traders on Kalshi price a 93% probability of an October hold. The transmission channel here runs through the policy-path repricing of the front end of the curve: a hold removes near-term uncertainty, but a December hike expectation keeps terminal rate assumptions elevated, feeding into real yields and the discount rate applied to long-duration equity cash flows. Broad equity indices such as the S&P 500 are most exposed to this mechanism because valuations are sensitive to real yield moves, and a higher-for-longer path can compress multiples even when near-term earnings are stable. Goldman Sachs shares are exposed through a separate channel, as the bank's trading and advisory revenues tend to correlate with volatility and capital markets activity, which can shift when rate expectations move sharply. The next catalyst for traders is the September CPI release, since an upside inflation surprise would strengthen the case for a December hike and push that probability higher.

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