BOC: CANADA GDP GROWTH FORECAST AT 1.0% IN 2026 (0.7% IN JULY REPORT), 2.0% IN 2027 (1.8%), 2.0% IN 2028 (1.8%)

The Bank of Canada has raised its real GDP growth forecasts, now projecting 1.0% growth in 2026 (up from 0.7% in its July report), 2.0% in 2027, and 2.0% in 2028, each revised up by roughly 0.2 percentage points from the prior projections for those later years. The upgrade signals a stronger domestic demand and output outlook than previously assumed, which tends to narrow the expected gap between Canadian and U.S. growth and can support the Canadian dollar through improved relative growth expectations and higher implied terminal policy rates. The transmission runs primarily through the rate differential channel: firmer growth reduces the probability of further policy easing, pushing up Canadian short-end yields relative to U.S. equivalents and attracting carry-oriented capital flows into CAD. Canadian rate-sensitive assets, including the Canadian dollar crosses against the U.S. dollar and domestic interest-rate futures, are most directly exposed, while the TSX may see sector rotation toward cyclicals such as energy, materials, and financials. Traders should watch Canada's next monthly GDP release from Statistics Canada and the

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is tightly correlated with oil prices. BoC rate decisions, Canadian CPI, WTI inventory reports, and OPEC+ decisions all move USD/CAD intraday. Winter fuel demand amplifies oil-CAD correlation Q4/Q1.

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