CNI reduces projection to GDP and increases estimates of inflation and public debt

CNI, the Brazilian industry confederation, has lowered its GDP growth projection while raising its forecasts for inflation and public debt. The revision implies weaker real activity alongside higher price pressures, a stagflationary combination that complicates the monetary policy outlook. Higher inflation expectations tend to delay rate cuts or push real yields up, which weighs on domestic equities and the real through tighter financial conditions and weaker growth expectations. Brazilian equities, particularly cyclical sectors tied to domestic consumption and construction, and local-currency fixed income are most sensitive to this shift. Traders should watch the next IPCA inflation release and the Central Bank's Focus survey for whether market consensus on growth and inflation moves in the same direction as CNI's revisions.

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