FED CHAIR WARSH SAYS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IS EXPANDING AT A STRONG PACE AND HAS STRENGTHENED, WITH PAYROLL GROWTH ABOVE LAST YEAR’S PACE AND BUSINESS INVESTMENT LIKELY RISING BY DOUBLE DIGITS

Fed Chair Warsh stated that economic activity is expanding at a strong pace and has strengthened, citing payroll growth running above last year's rate and business investment likely to rise by double digits. The reported strength points to a resilient real economy, which tends to firm the case against near-term rate cuts by reducing the urgency for policy easing. Front-end Treasury yields and the dollar are the most sensitive channels, since a higher-for-longer repricing lifts short-dated rates and supports the currency relative to peers. Rate-sensitive equities such as housing, small caps, and long-duration growth names face the most pressure from a steeper discount rate path, while cyclical sectors tied to capital spending may benefit from the investment outlook. The next concrete catalyst is the monthly nonfarm payrolls and average hourly earnings report, which will test whether hiring momentum is broad enough to validate the Chair's characterization and whether wage data reinforces or eases inflation concerns.

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