FED CHAIR WARSH SAYS HE HAS 18 “QUITE INDEPENDENT” COLLEAGUES, AND THAT THE OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS IS THAT THE “MONETARY MEDICINE” IS STARTING TO WORK, ADDING HE IS ENCOURAGED BY THE PROGRESS MADE

Fed Chair Warsh stated that he has 18 "quite independent" colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee, that the overwhelming consensus is that the "monetary medicine" is beginning to work, and that he is encouraged by the progress made. The remarks signal that policymakers view current restrictive settings as effective in addressing the inflation problem, which points toward a reduced probability of further tightening. For markets, the core transmission channel runs through rate expectations: a perception of policy-committee consensus lowers the risk of a policy error and tends to compress term premia, supporting duration-sensitive assets such as Treasuries and rate-sensitive equities. Front-end rate futures and the two-year Treasury yield are the most directly exposed instruments, while the dollar may soften if rate-differential expectations shift. The next catalyst for traders to watch is the upcoming Consumer Price Index release, which will test whether disinflation is sustaining the progress the Chair described.

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