FED CHAIR WARSH SAYS MORE INFORMATION WILL HELP DETERMINE THE APPROPRIATE POLICY STANCE, ADDING THE COMMITTEE IS “LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW” AND HAS NOT GROWN EASIER

Fed Chair Warsh stated that additional information will be needed to determine the appropriate policy stance, and that the Committee is "looking out the window" while noting that conditions have not become easier. The remarks signal that the Committee is in a wait-and-see posture rather than leaning toward an imminent move in either direction, which keeps the policy rate path tied to incoming data. The transmission runs primarily through the rate differential and inflation expectations: when the Fed signals data dependence without a clear bias, front-end Treasury yields and fed funds futures tend to reprice around the next inflation and labor prints, while the dollar and rate-sensitive equities respond to shifts in expected policy duration. Short-dated Treasuries, two-year yields, and rate-sensitive sectors such as housing-linked equities and small caps are most exposed, since their valuations depend most directly on the expected path of policy. Traders should watch the next CPI release and the subsequent jobs report, as either could tilt the market's pricing of the Committee's next move.

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