India’s public debt ratio to fall to 75.1% of GDP by FY32, only major emerging economy set for a decline: RBI DG

The Reserve Bank of India's Deputy Governor stated that India's public debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to decline to 75.1% by fiscal year 2032, positioning the country as the only major emerging economy expected to see such a reduction. The transmission mechanism runs primarily through sovereign risk premia and capital flows: a falling debt trajectory supports lower long-run fiscal risk perceptions, which can compress the term premium on government bonds and improve the relative attractiveness of Indian sovereign debt against peer emerging markets facing rising debt burdens. Indian government bonds and rupee-denominated assets are the most directly exposed, as foreign portfolio investors weigh the debt outlook against domestic inflation and the monetary policy path. Equity markets sensitive to GDP growth expectations, particularly those with heavy exposure to public infrastructure spending, would also be affected through the cost-of-capital channel. Traders should watch the upcoming Union Budget fiscal deficit targets and the monthly central government debt and deficit data releases for confirmation that consolidation is tracking the projected path.

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