ISRAEL ELECTION OFFICIAL COUNT, WITH 88.6% COUNTED AND TURNOUT AT 77.7%, SHOWS THE NETANYAHU BLOC (LIKUD, SHAS, UTJ, RZP, OTZMA) ON 53 SEATS, 8 SHORT OF A MAJORITY, AND THE OPPOSITION BLOC (YASHAR, TOGETHER, DEMOCRATS, YB, RESERVISTS) ON 48, 13 SHORT

The headline reports partial official results from an Israeli election, with 88.6% of votes counted and turnout at 77.7%, showing the Netanyahu bloc (Likud, Shas, UTJ, RZP, and Otzma) at 53 seats, eight short of the 61-seat majority needed to form a government. The transmission mechanism here runs through political risk premia and coalition-formation uncertainty: a bloc short of a majority typically prolongs negotiations, raising the probability of an extended caretaker period, fragmented governance, or a repeat contest, which tends to weigh on sovereign risk sentiment and shekel-denominated assets. Israeli government bonds, the shekel, and Tel Aviv equities are most directly exposed, since investors price fiscal trajectory, defense spending commitments, and institutional stability through these channels. Traders should watch the final official tally and the remaining uncounted ballots, which could shift seat allocations for smaller parties near the electoral threshold, along with the President's timetable for assigning the mandate to form a government.

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