RBNZ leaves its cash rate unchanged, they were expected to hike

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its official cash rate steady, defying market expectations that it would raise rates at this meeting. The surprise hold removes a tightening step that had been partly priced into New Zealand money markets, which tends to compress the expected rate differential between the New Zealand dollar and its peers and weakens NZD through the front end of the curve. Short-dated New Zealand government bond yields and OIS-implied hike probabilities are the most directly exposed, with the NZD crosses against the Australian dollar and US dollar likely to see the most immediate repricing. Traders will focus on the next quarterly Consumer Price Index release and the RBNZ's updated forward rate track, since any signal that inflation pressures are easing faster than expected would reinforce the case for a prolonged pause.

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