US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3): 3.3 actual (prev 3.4)

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, which produces a real-time running estimate of US quarterly growth, put third-quarter 2024 annualized real GDP growth at 3.3%, down slightly from the prior reading of 3.4%. The reading signals that the US economy continues to expand at a pace well above its long-run trend, though the marginal downgrade indicates momentum is easing at the margin rather than accelerating. For rate markets, a resilient growth backdrop reduces the urgency for Federal Reserve easing, which tends to keep front-end Treasury yields and the expected path of policy rates elevated relative to scenarios priced for a sharper slowdown. The equity-to-bond spread and dollar positioning are sensitive to this repricing, as stronger US growth relative to peers supports the currency through real yield differentials. The next catalyst for traders is the scheduled release of the Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate of third-quarter GDP, along with the core PCE inflation print, which together will test whether the model's estimate is confirmed and whether inflation pressures warrant a higher-for-longer policy stance.

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