US WARNS SHIPS TO AVOID STRAIT OF HORMUZ

The US has issued a warning advising commercial vessels to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow chokepoint through which a large share of the world's seaborne crude oil and liquefied natural gas transits. The primary transmission channel is supply-risk premium: a credible threat to tanker traffic raises the probability of supply disruption, pushing up crude benchmarks through a higher geopolitical risk premium and higher freight and war-risk insurance costs. Oil futures and tanker equities are the most directly exposed, while Gulf-dependent LNG importers in Asia and Europe face elevated spot gas prices. Regional equity markets and Gulf sovereign currencies and bonds may also reprice on heightened security concerns, with safe-haven flows into the dollar, Treasuries, and gold typically accompanying such escalation. Traders should watch the next OPEC+ production decisions and weekly EIA crude inventory data, along with any shipping-insurance rate changes from Lloyd's underwriters, for confirmation of how durable the disruption premium becomes.

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