AI investment accounts for half of U.S. GDP growth since start of 2025, Daco says

The headline attributes roughly half of U.S. GDP growth since the start of 2025 to AI-related investment, according to comments attributed to Daco, a figure that would make a single spending category a dominant driver of headline output. The transmission mechanism runs through business fixed investment, where spending on data centers, computing equipment, and related infrastructure lifts measured GDP directly while also tightening the link between capital expenditure cycles and aggregate growth. If that concentration persists, growth becomes more sensitive to the trajectory of hyperscaler capex and semiconductor orders, which heightens the risk that a pullback in AI spending would weigh disproportionately on headline growth figures. Equity indices with heavy technology weightings and semiconductor and data-center supply chains are most directly exposed, while Treasury yields could reprice if strong investment-led growth keeps inflation expectations and the policy path under pressure. The next quarterly GDP release and its breakdown of private fixed investment in information processing equipment and software will be the key test of whether this contribution is holding up.

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