ONTARIO PROJECTS GDP GROWTH OF 0.5% IN 2026 AND 1.5% IN 2027, DOWN FROM MARCH FORECASTS OF 1% AND 1.7% RESPECTIVELY

Ontario's provincial government has revised its economic outlook, now projecting real GDP growth of 0.5% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027, down from March forecasts of 1% and 1.7% respectively. The downgrade transmits to markets mainly through the fiscal and credit channel: slower provincial output growth weakens the revenue base that supports Ontario's budget, which is the largest of any Canadian province, and can widen expected deficits and increase borrowing needs. Ontario's debt and provincial bonds are the most directly exposed, as weaker growth expectations tend to pressure provincial credit spreads against federal Government of Canada benchmarks, while Canadian equities with heavy Ontario-based exposure, notably financials and industrials, may see sentiment effects. The Bank of Canada's interpretation of the downgrade also matters, since weaker regional growth could feed into the rate-cut debate and influence the Canadian dollar through shifting rate differentials. Traders should watch the next Statistics Canada monthly GDP release and the Ontario Ministry of Finance's fiscal updates for confirmation of whether the revised trajectory is

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