U.S. GDP grows more in Q3

The headline reports that U.S. gross domestic product grew at a faster pace in the third quarter, indicating stronger output in the world's largest economy than had previously been the case. The transmission mechanism runs chiefly through inflation and rate expectations: firmer growth tends to reduce the probability of near-term monetary easing, lifting Treasury yields as markets reprice the path of policy rates. Interest-rate-sensitive assets such as long-duration Treasuries and rate-sensitive equity sectors, including homebuilders and utilities, are the most directly exposed, while the U.S. dollar may firm on wider rate differentials against trading partners. The next concrete catalyst traders will watch is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index release, since its core inflation reading will determine whether stronger growth translates into a hawkish reassessment of Federal Reserve policy.

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