US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4): 3.2 actual (prev 3.3)

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, which produces a running estimate of US real GDP growth for the fourth quarter, stood at 3.2% annualized, down from 3.3% in the prior update. The modest downward revision signals that incoming data has marginally softened the nowcast without changing the underlying picture of above-trend activity. For rates markets, a quarter tracking near 3% reinforces the view that the economy retains momentum, which can keep Treasury yields supported by pushing out expectations for policy easing and limiting downside in real yields. Equities and the dollar are likely to react mainly through this rate-expectations channel, with rate-sensitive sectors and long-duration growth stocks most exposed to any repricing of the policy path. The next catalyst traders will watch is the upcoming monthly data releases on retail sales and industrial production, which feed directly into subsequent GDPNow updates.

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