JAPAN Q3 GDP CAPEX FORECAST BY ECONOMISTS IN SEPT 30-OCT 7 ESP SURVEY TO SHOW +0.95% Q/Q VS. -0.9% IN Q2, -1.0% IN Q1, +1.3% IN Q4 2025

A survey of economists conducted between September 30 and October 7 projects Japan's third-quarter capital expenditure to rise 0.95% quarter-on-quarter, a sharp reversal from declines of 0.9% in Q2 and 1.0% in Q1, and following a 1.3% gain in Q4 2025. The transmission mechanism runs through business investment as a driver of domestic demand: a swing back into positive capex growth would strengthen the case that corporate spending is recovering, supporting growth expectations and potentially shifting the balance of inflation and policy-rate outlooks that underpin the yen. Japanese equities and the yen are the most directly exposed, since stronger investment readings tend to lift domestic growth expectations and can widen rate differentials against lower-yielding peers, though the currency's response depends heavily on how the data reshapes Bank of Japan tightening expectations. Traders should watch the Ministry of Finance's official quarterly GDP release, which will include the final capex figure and confirm whether the survey's expected rebound materializes.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is a traditional safe-haven asset. JPY strength often accompanies global risk-off episodes, and BoJ policy shifts (especially YCC/ETF purchase changes) can trigger multi-figure moves in USD/JPY intraday.

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