National Bank revises 2026 real GDP forecast downward

The National Bank has revised its 2026 real GDP growth forecast downward, according to Ukrinform, signaling a weaker outlook for Ukraine's economic activity than previously projected. The revision transmits primarily through expectations for domestic demand, tax revenues, and the government's fiscal position, which in turn shape the central bank's room to ease monetary policy and the path of the hryvnia. A lower growth trajectory tends to reduce inflation pressure over the medium term but can also widen the fiscal financing gap, raising sensitivity in Ukrainian sovereign debt and in instruments tied to external financing support. Traders should watch the next NBU monetary policy decision and accompanying inflation report, which will indicate whether the lower GDP path changes the rate outlook, alongside monthly industrial production and retail data for early confirmation of the downgrade's drivers.

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