Netanyahu bloc first but without majority as Arab parties hold balance of power in Israel election

Netanyahu's bloc finished first in the Israeli election but without an outright majority, leaving Arab parties positioned as the decisive kingmakers in the Knesset arithmetic. The transmission mechanism runs through political risk premia and policy-uncertainty pricing: a fragmented result prolongs coalition negotiations and raises the probability of protracted government formation, which typically widens sovereign risk spreads and weighs on the shekel through reduced foreign portfolio appetite. Israeli government bonds, the shekel, and domestic banks and infrastructure names are most directly exposed, since their valuations hinge on fiscal trajectory and the durability of the governing coalition's economic agenda. Traders will watch the timing and terms of the President's formal mandate to form a government and any reporting on whether Arab parties would enter or support a coalition, as either development would shift the expected path for fiscal policy and defense spending.

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