RUSSIA'S NOVAK SAYS ATTACKS ON OIL REFINERIES WILL HAVE NEGATIVE IMPACT ON DIESEL FUEL SUPPLIES TO GLOBAL MARKET

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has stated that Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries will reduce diesel supplies to global markets. The transmission channel runs through refined-product supply disruption rather than crude output: refinery outages cut diesel yields, which tightens the middle-distillate balance and can lift diesel cracks (the margin between diesel and crude) even if crude prices move less. Diesel and gasoil futures are the most directly exposed instruments, given Russia's substantial role as an exporter of diesel to Europe and other importers, while crude benchmarks are affected more indirectly through refiners' changing crude intake. Russian export-linked assets and the ruble may also react to any official confirmation of export volume losses. Traders should watch weekly EIA distillate inventory data and any Russian government statements on export bans or fuel-export restrictions, which would materially alter the supply outlook.

Crude oil (WTI/Brent) reacts in real time to OPEC+ production decisions, EIA weekly inventory reports, geopolitical supply disruptions (Middle East, Russia, Venezuela) and US Strategic Petroleum Reserve announcements. A 5% intraday move on breaking news is not unusual.

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