China’s Official Composite PMI Signals Contraction at 49.7 in October

China's official composite purchasing managers' index, which combines manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity, registered 49.7 in October, placing it just below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. The reading points to a marginal slowdown in aggregate economic activity, with weakness concentrated in the sectors that feed into both domestic demand and export-oriented production. The transmission runs primarily through domestic demand expectations and risk appetite: a contracting PMI tends to revive expectations for further policy easing, which supports Chinese government bonds through lower yield expectations while weighing on cyclically exposed equities, industrial metals such as copper and iron ore, and the renminbi against the dollar. Commodity-linked currencies and markets with heavy China export exposure, including Australia and parts of Southeast Asia, are most sensitive to such a reading because demand for raw materials and intermediate goods tracks Chinese industrial activity closely. Traders should watch the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI breakdowns, along with the subsequent November release, for confirmation of whether the so

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