Iran could revisit nuclear weapons ban if war resumes, security chief says

Iran's security chief reportedly said Tehran could reconsider its commitment to the nuclear weapons ban if hostilities resume, a statement that raises the prospect of renewed proliferation risk in a region already marked by elevated geopolitical tension. The transmission mechanism runs primarily through risk premia: escalation expectations feed into oil prices via perceived supply disruption risk around the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf shipping lanes, while safe-haven demand lifts gold, the US dollar, and Treasuries. Energy markets, particularly Brent and WTI crude, along with regional sovereign debt and Gulf equities, are most directly exposed, and defense-sector shares and tanker and insurance-linked names tend to reprice on headlines of this kind. The key catalyst to watch is the next round of IAEA inspection access and reporting on Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, since any confirmed step away from safeguards would likely amplify the risk-off response in oil and gold.

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