Zelensky: If Washington wants us not to target Russian oil refineries, then Moscow must stop its attacks on Ukraine's energy system.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that if Washington wants Kyiv to refrain from striking Russian oil refineries, Moscow must first halt its attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, framing the issue as a reciprocal condition rather than a unilateral concession. The transmission channel runs through supply risk: Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refining capacity reduce product output and can tighten refined fuel markets, while Russian strikes on Ukrainian power assets affect regional energy security and European gas and power sentiment. Crude oil and refined products such as diesel and gasoline are the most directly exposed, since refinery outages affect product cracks more than headline crude prices, and Russian export-linked instruments and Eastern European energy equities carry the sharpest geopolitical sensitivity. Traders should watch the weekly U.S. Energy Information Administration inventory report and any Washington statement on whether the proposed reciprocity is being formally pursued, as either would clarify whether refinery strikes are likely to be constrained.

Crude oil (WTI/Brent) reacts in real time to OPEC+ production decisions, EIA weekly inventory reports, geopolitical supply disruptions (Middle East, Russia, Venezuela) and US Strategic Petroleum Reserve announcements. A 5% intraday move on breaking news is not unusual.

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