IRAN THREATENS US BASES IN EUROPE IF US LAUNCHES NEW AIRSTRIKES - THE TIMES

The Times reports that Iran has threatened US military bases in Europe should the United States launch new airstrikes against it, a statement that signals potential escalation beyond the Middle East theatre. The primary market transmission channel is geopolitical risk premia feeding into energy prices, as any expansion of hostilities raises the perceived probability of supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent shipping lanes, pushing up crude and liquefied natural gas prices. European assets are most exposed given the region's dependence on imported energy and its proximity to the threatened installations, with risk appetite likely to weaken across European equities, particularly energy-intensive industrials, airlines, and chemicals. Euro-denominated safe-haven flows may also shift toward US Treasuries, gold, and the Swiss franc, while the euro itself faces pressure if traders price a larger terms-of-trade shock from higher import costs. The key catalyst to watch is whether the US follows through on new strikes and whether Iranian retaliation is directed at European targets, alongside Brent crude and TTF gas front-month price moves in the immediate sessions follow

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