MORE US OCT MANUFACTURING PMI: NEW ROK INCREASED AT THE SLOWEST RATE SINCE MARCH BUT STILL SOLID; SHORT SUPPLY OF INPUTS; EXPECTATIONS 'CONFIDENT'

The headline reports that the October US manufacturing PMI showed new orders expanding at their slowest pace since March, though still at a solid level, with firms citing short supply of inputs and manufacturers' expectations described as confident. Because new orders lead production and employment, a deceleration in orders feeds into forward demand expectations and can shift the market's read on the growth outlook, which in turn moves Treasury yields through the growth-expectations channel. Supply constraints in inputs work in the opposite direction, supporting factory prices and feeding into inflation expectations, so the report sets up a tension between softer demand momentum and firmer cost pressure. Rate-sensitive assets such as Treasuries and rate-linked equity sectors are most directly exposed, while industrial and materials stocks are sensitive to the demand signal and commodity-linked names to the input-shortage signal. Traders will look to the ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid subindex and the subsequent non-farm payrolls report for confirmation of whether cost pressures are broadening.

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