OIL FUTURES EXTENDED LOSSES, WITH BRENT FALLING OVER $9/BBL AND U.S. WTI DROPPING $8/BBL ON HOPES FOR A DEAL TO END THE IRAN WAR

Oil futures extended their losses as Brent fell more than $9 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped about $8 per barrel, with the moves driven by hopes for a deal to end the Iran war. The transmission channel here is a supply-risk premium unwinding: geopolitical risk embedded in crude prices during active conflict involving Iran, a major producer and a key actor around Gulf shipping lanes, is being removed as the prospect of a settlement reduces the likelihood of supply disruption. Energy producers and oil-linked equities are the most directly exposed, since their revenue expectations are tied to the crude price, while airlines, transport, and other fuel-intensive sectors stand to benefit from lower input costs. Inflation-sensitive assets such as breakevens may also reprice lower if the decline in crude persists, given energy's weight in headline price indices. Traders will watch whether the Brent and WTI spread and forward curve structure confirm a durable easing in supply concerns, along with the next weekly U.S. Energy Information Administration inventory report and any official statements on the status of negotiations.

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