QATARI MEDIATORS TRAVELED TO TEHRAN LATE MONDAY FOR TALKS WITH IRAN’S FOREIGN MINISTER ARAGHCHI ON A POTENTIAL U.S.-IRAN DEAL, WITH A VERSION OF THE DRAFT U.S.-IRAN DEAL UNDER NEGOTIATION FOR THE PAST EIGHT DAYS UNDER DISCUSSION - OFFICIAL BRIEFED ON THE TALKS TO REUTERS

Qatari mediators traveled to Tehran late Monday for talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi concerning a potential U.S.-Iran agreement, with a draft version of the deal reportedly under negotiation for the past eight days. The headline points to a diplomatic channel that could ease Gulf geopolitical risk premia, a transmission mechanism operating through risk appetite and oil supply expectations, since a de-escalation framework reduces the probability of disruption to Strait of Hormuz shipping and Iranian crude exports. Crude oil benchmarks and Gulf-linked equity markets are the most directly exposed, with energy futures likely to reprice on any signal of sanctions relief or export normalization, while regional currencies and sovereign spreads in the Gulf would respond to shifts in perceived conflict risk. Traders should watch the next scheduled OPEC+ production review and weekly EIA inventory data for evidence of whether diplomatic progress is translating into changed supply expectations.

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