TRUMP SAYS IRAN SAID EVEN RECENTLY THAT IT WON’T HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON

President Donald Trump stated that Iran had recently told him it would not pursue a nuclear weapon, according to the headline, though the claim is attributed to Trump and not independently confirmed in the report. The transmission channel for markets runs primarily through geopolitical risk premia: assurances of nuclear restraint from Tehran can compress the perceived probability of a Middle East escalation, which typically weighs on crude oil and gold and supports risk appetite in regional and broader equity markets. Oil is the most directly exposed asset, since any reduction in expected supply disruption risk from the Strait of Hormuz or Iranian production sanctions can pull down the geopolitical component of Brent and WTI pricing. Traders should also watch currency and sovereign debt in the Gulf and Israel, where tail-risk hedging tends to unwind on de-escalation signals. The key catalyst to monitor is any official confirmation or denial from Iranian authorities and the schedule of International Atomic Energy Agency inspection reports on Iran's enrichment activity.

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