TRUMP SAYS OIL WILL GO DOWN FURTHER BECAUSE “WE’RE WINNING WITH IRAN,” AND THAT IRAN WANTS TO MAKE A DEAL, WHICH COULD HAPPEN

President Trump stated that oil prices will fall further because the United States is "winning with Iran," and asserted that Iran wants to make a deal, which he said could happen. The remarks tie crude pricing directly to expectations about Iranian supply and geopolitical de-escalation, a transmission channel that operates through the risk premium embedded in Brent and WTI futures. If traders price a higher probability of a negotiated outcome, the geopolitical risk premium compresses and expectations of future Gulf supply rise, pressuring crude benchmarks and weighing on energy equities and oil-linked currencies such as the Canadian and Norwegian dollars. Iran's own export volumes and the broader Gulf energy complex are the most directly exposed, while airline and transport equities tend to benefit from lower fuel costs and reduced inflation pressure. Traders will watch the weekly EIA crude inventory report and any official Iranian or intermediary confirmation of talks, since concrete diplomatic signals would determine whether the headline's implied price decline is sustained.

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