🇺🇸 INSIGHT: Bitcoin has gained an average median return of 63% in the 12 months following every US midterm election since 2010, according to CryptoQuant.

CryptoQuant data, as reported by Cointelegraph, shows bitcoin posting an average median return of 63% in the 12 months following each US midterm election since 2010. The transmission mechanism is primarily a cyclical positioning and risk-appetite channel rather than a direct policy effect, since midterms shift the balance of congressional power and historically coincide with a point in the four-year cycle when speculative capital tends to rotate back into risk assets. BTC is the most directly exposed asset, with crypto-linked equities and other high-beta digital assets likely to show correlated sensitivity to any sentiment shift. Because the sample covers only a limited number of midterm cycles, the statistic is highly sensitive to a few large outlier periods and should be treated as descriptive rather than predictive. Traders should watch the Federal Reserve's policy path and US spot bitcoin ETF flow data over the coming months, as sustained net inflows would indicate whether the historical pattern is being reinforced by current demand.

Bitcoin (BTC) price action is driven by spot ETF flows (IBIT, FBTC, GBTC, ARKB), SEC enforcement actions, institutional adoption announcements, large wallet moves, and miner behaviour. BTC-specific catalysts include halving events every ~4 years.

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