Israel has warned US intelligence officials that Iran may be preparing to use chemical weapons, but the claims have triggered significant disagreement within the Trump administration.

Israel has reportedly warned US intelligence officials that Iran may be preparing to use chemical weapons, and the assessment has produced notable disagreement within the Trump administration over its credibility and implications. The transmission channel here runs mainly through geopolitical risk premia, with the potential for escalation in the Middle East lifting demand for havens and pushing up crude oil on fears of supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil futures and energy equities are the most directly exposed, while Gulf-linked currencies and regional sovereign debt may see wider spreads if the dispute hardens into a formal policy shift. Traders should watch for any official US statement clarifying the intelligence position, along with the weekly EIA crude inventory report and Brent front-month spreads, which would show whether the risk premium is being priced as a temporary spike or a sustained supply concern.

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