*ISRAEL TELLS US IRAN WEIGHING CHEMICAL ARMS USE: NYT

The New York Times reports that Israeli officials have told the United States that Iran is weighing the use of chemical weapons, a claim attributed to the Israeli side and not independently confirmed in the headline itself. The transmission channel here runs mainly through geopolitical risk premia and safe-haven demand rather than through standard macro fundamentals, as any credible escalation involving unconventional weapons raises the probability of wider regional conflict and supply disruption in energy shipping lanes. Assets most directly exposed are Israeli and Iranian sovereign and equity exposures, where Iranian instruments are largely inaccessible to foreign investors under sanctions while Israeli shekel-denominated assets and Tel Aviv-listed equities would be sensitive to capital flight and defense-spending repricing. Second-order exposure extends to crude oil and Gulf-linked currencies, as traders weigh the risk of disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, alongside gold and U.S. Treasuries as defensive hedges. The next concrete catalyst to watch is any official U.S. or Israeli government confirmation or denial of the intelligence assessment, along with Brent

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