RBA: The board voted 6-3 to raise the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.85%, while three members favoured keeping rates unchanged at 4.60%.

The Reserve Bank of Australia's board voted 6-3 to raise the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.85%, with three members dissenting in favour of holding at 4.60%. The decision transmits primarily through the interest rate differential channel, widening the yield premium on Australian dollar-denominated assets relative to counterparts and tightening domestic financial conditions via higher mortgage and business borrowing costs. The split vote signals that the board's inflation assessment was not unanimous, which raises the possibility that the tightening cycle is closer to its end than a unanimous hike would have implied, and this uncertainty is likely to weigh on short-dated Australian government bond yields and the front end of the swap curve. The Australian dollar and rate-sensitive domestic equities, particularly housing-linked financials and the banks, are most directly exposed to the revised policy path. Traders will look to the next quarterly monetary policy statement and the upcoming monthly CPI release for evidence on whether inflation persistence justifies further tightening or supports the dissenters' case for a pause.

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