SCHLEGEL SAYS IN SEPT, INFLATION PRESSURE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN JUNE; SWISS GDP SHOULD GROW MODERATELY AFTER STRONG 2Q

Swiss National Bank Chairman Thomas Schlegel stated that inflation pressure in September is slightly higher than it was in June, and that Swiss GDP should grow moderately following a strong second quarter. The inflation remark points to a modest upward repricing of the expected inflation path, which would reduce the likelihood of near-term monetary easing from the SNB and support the franc through rate expectations. The growth comment, by contrast, implies that domestic demand is holding up without signaling overheating, a combination that tends to keep Swiss real yields anchored and limits pressure on capital to flow out of franc-denominated assets. Swiss government bonds and CHF crosses are most directly exposed to these shifts in policy expectations, while Swiss equities, particularly export-oriented large caps sensitive to franc strength, may respond to any revision in the currency outlook. The next key event for traders is the Swiss CPI release for the month, which will show whether the inflation pressure Schlegel described is materializing in consumer prices.

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