SOME ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS SEE THE ISRAELI INTELLIGENCE AS PART OF A PRESSURE CAMPAIGN BY NETANYAHU’S GOVERNMENT TO PERSUADE THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION TO RETURN TO MAJOR COMBAT OPERATIONS AGAINST IRAN - NYT

The New York Times reports that some Trump administration officials view Israeli intelligence on Iran as part of a pressure campaign by Netanyahu's government aimed at persuading Washington to resume major combat operations against Iran. The headline frames a dispute over the reliability and purpose of intelligence rather than a confirmed policy decision, so the immediate transmission runs through geopolitical risk premia rather than direct fundamentals. Oil and energy markets are the most exposed channel, since renewed US-Iran hostilities threaten Strait of Hormuz shipping and Gulf supply, which would feed into crude prices and inflation expectations. Defense equities, regional sovereign spreads, and safe-haven flows into the dollar, gold, and Treasuries would likely respond first, with Israeli assets sensitive to any shift in US backing. The next catalyst to watch is any formal White House statement or National Security Council briefing on Iran policy, alongside weekly EIA crude inventory data and tanker-traffic reports through the Strait of Hormuz.

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